Non-residential fire
Variable Importance
- The most important factor for predicting the category of Very Low to Very High risk is the Number of Fulltime Employees (2019).
- Other highly ranked variables include factors related to sectors of industry:
- Hospitality Services
- Wholesale and Retail
- Shops and Other Retail Outlets
- Office and Administration
- There are plenty of data sources that relate to people and dwellings, but less information was available on other factors on the built environment, businesses, etc.
- The model’s predicted risk levels are less confident for non-residential fires compared to dwelling fires.
Outliers
- Four LSOAs were removed from the risk assessment as they were outliers in terms of the number of incidents during the sample.
- These were LOSAs which include the following locations where a high number of incidents occurred:
- HMP Ranby
- HMP Lowdham Grange
- HMP Nottingham and Nottingham City Hospital
- Queens Medical Centre Hospitals
Top 10 risk factors
| Short name | Relative importance | Relationship | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time employees 2019 | 100.00% | Positive | Census |
| Part-time employees 2019 | 89.16% | Positive | Mosaic |
| I Hospitality Services | 45.20% | Positive | Experian |
| G Wholesale and Retail | 41.49% | Positive | Experian |
| Shops and other Retail Outlets | 37.03% | Positive | Experian |
| Office and Administration | 36.01% | Positive | NOMIS |
| Constructed 1950 - 1975 | 27.57% | Negative | EPC Data |
| Streets Length Km | 27.37% | Positive | HERE |
| Indoors Sub-domain Score | 25.50% | Positive | IMD |
| Factories and Manufacturing | 23.51% | Positive | Mosaic |
Predicted Risk Cluster
- Using the top ranked risk variables, the model predicts the risk level in each LSOA.
- This map summarises the output in terms of whether each LSOA is most likely to be Very Low to Very High risk.
- Most of the highest risk LSOAs are in urban areas.