Dwelling Fires
Variable Importance
- The most important factor for predicting the category of Very Low to Very High risk is the Number of Households with no car/Van.
- For most variables, a higher value would suggest a higher level of risk, but this is not always the case; for example, where the percentage of households who own their house is a lower percentage, this may indicate that the risk is higher. Importantly, these are not always linear relationships between the variables and the level of risk.
- Most of the top factors are in some way linked to deprivation, which is not surprising, although there are some factors around the built environment; for example, properties with EPC F/G ratings, 1950-75 construction and number of flats.
- To target prevention, ideally it will be finding the people/places where these data points overlap.
Top 10 risk factors
| Short name | Relative importance | Relationship | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Households with no car/van | 100.00% | Positive | Census |
| % Households who own/share own | 93.06% | Negative | Census |
| Income deprivation affecting older people | 59.23% | Positive | IMD |
| Occupancy room rating - fewer rooms than required | 56.42% | Positive | Census |
| People & family household composition fine multi occupancy dwelling | 54.61% | Positive | Mosaic |
| Work transport to work bus tram | 49.25% | Positive | Mosaic |
| Number of households with no adults in employment | 48.29% | Positive | Census |
| % Households - social renting | 45.93% | Positive | Census |
| Number of flats | 45.44% | Positive | Census |
| Households Council Tax Band A | 41.69% | Positive | Valuation Office |
Predicted Risk Cluster
- Using the top ranked risk variables, the model predicts the risk level in each LSOA.
- This map summarises the output in terms of whether each LSOA is most likely to be Very Low to Very High risk.