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Outdoor fires

Variable Importance

  • The most important factor for predicting the category of Very Low to Very High risk is the Crime Score.
  • Three LSOAs (highlighted opposite) were removed from the risk assessment as they were outliers in terms of the number of incidents during the sample.
Map of Nottinghamshire showing three small areas highlighted in red demonstrating outliers in incident data.

Outliers

  • These three LSOAs were removed from the risk assessment as they were outliers in terms of a significantly greater number of incidents during the sample compared to other LSOAs.
Map of Newark and Sherwood with hot spots of incident data
Map of Bassetlaw showing hotspots of incident data.
Map of Mansfield with hot spots of incident data

Top 10 risk factors

Short name Relative importance Relationship Origin
Crime score 100.00% Positive IMD
Health deprivation & disability score 86.36% Positive IMD
No qualifications 83.12% Positive Census
All bad health 76.35% Positive Census
Street length km 70.18% Positive HERE
Occupation 2 professional occupations 70.13% Negative NOMIS
Education skills and training score 66.63% Positive IMD
Number of households with no adults in employment 66.03% Positive Census
Area sq km 65.78% Positive ONS
Population per sq km 65.11% Negative Census

Predicted Risk Cluster

Map of Nottinghamshire showing outdoor fires predicted risk clusters
  • Using the top ranked risk variables, the model predicts the risk level in each LSOA.
  • This map summarises the output in terms of whether each LSOA is most likely to be Very Low to Very High risk.
  • Most of the highest risk LSOAs are in urban areas.