Community risk assessment

National risks

The National Risk Register 2023 provides information about the most significant emergencies that could impact the country now and in the future. It is maintained by the UK Government and based on the National Security Risk Assessment. This register identifies various risks that, while unlikely to occur, could have significant and potentially catastrophic consequences for different parts of the country. These risks include terrorist attacks, cyber-attacks, failures or accidents involving critical national infrastructure (such as electricity and gas supplies), extreme weather events, pandemics, emerging infectious diseases, widespread public disorder, and industrial action.

As a Category One responder, we must be ready to act in the event of an incident and ensure that we can continue to deliver our statutory duties if we are affected by such events.

Regional risks

We are a key member of the Nottinghamshire Local Resilience Forum (LRF). The role of the LRF is to plan and prepare for localised incidents and catastrophic emergencies. It maintains a Community Risk Register (.pdf, 36 pages, 2.4Mb), which identifies the most significant and high impact risks that could affect the county. We work with our partners to prepare plans and carry out exercises to mitigate these risks.

The Community Risk Register also informs our operational preparedness and business continuity plans within the Service.

Local risks

We have reviewed and updated our internal strategic assessment of risk, looking at political, economic, technical, environmental, societal, legal and organisational risks. Any factors which pose a significant risk are added to our corporate risk register where mitigations are then considered and managed by the Service’s leadership team.

Operational risks

Fires in dwellings (accidental and deliberate)

Fires in dwellings include buildings where people live or intend to live, such as houses, flats, accommodation blocks, residential caravans, and houseboats. National research and historical incident data show that fires disproportionately impact vulnerable individuals in our communities.

Analysis of the causes of fires in the home and their severity identifies that certain factors can make a person more vulnerable.

View the Risk of Fires in Dwellings map in fullscreen

These factors include a person’s age, mobility, mental health, whether they are on medication or have dependency, whether they live alone and whether they smoke. Additionally, people in marginalised groups, including those with language and cultural barriers, transient communities, and individuals who are socially and economically deprived can also be more vulnerable.

In 2023-24, we attended 542 dwelling fires where the cause was accidental or unknown. During the same period, we responded to 44 dwelling fires that were identified as deliberate.

Fires in industrial and commercial buildings (including waste and recycling sites)

Industrial and commercial buildings in Nottinghamshire, such as factories, offices, shops, and public buildings, generally have a lower fire risk. However, certain types of sites, particularly manufacturing, waste and recycling facilities present higher levels of risk and challenges in the event of an incident. Fires in these buildings can draw on significant resources and impact local communities and the environment.

Fire in tall buildings

Tall buildings, whether residential, commercial, or mixed-use, are designed and built to resist fire and prevent smoke spread. Although the risk of a fire starting is not increased, the unique challenges posed by tall buildings can amplify hazards. Factors such as layout, occupancy type, and environmental conditions can affect evacuation and firefighting efforts. We collaborate with partners to ensure compliance with fire regulations. High-rise buildings, defined as those 18 metres or taller, require additional fire safety measures, including rising mains and protected lobbies. Nottinghamshire has 281 buildings over 18 metres tall, of which 41 exceed 30 metres.

Heritage and listed properties

Nottinghamshire boasts 4,500 listed buildings, structures, and monuments. These buildings are graded to reflect their special architectural and historic interest.

Wildfires

The threat of wildfires is increasing due to climate change. A wildfire is defined as a large, uncontrolled, destructive fire that spreads quickly over woodland or brush. There were 442 wildfires in England and Wales by Summer 2022, compared with 247 in 2021. Periods of warmer and drier weather create conditions that elevate the risk of wildfires. According to the Met Office, wildfires are projected to increase globally by 14% by 2030, 30% by 2050, and 50% by 2100. The warmer summer temperatures of 2022 likely contributed to a spike in grassland and vegetation fires. An increase in wildfires in Nottinghamshire could impact fire cover, the economy, flood risk, habitats, wildlife, and air quality. There may also be a need to assist colleagues in other counties during times of heightened wildfire activity.

Outdoor and secondary fires

These fires, occurring in grass, refuse, wheelie bins, etc., typically do not cause injury or loss of life. The majority are deliberate and impact communities, causing financial detriment to the local economy and diverting resources from other key activities. In 2023- 24, we attended 1,467 outdoor or secondary fires, 701 of which were refuse fires. These fires accounted for 43% of all the fire related incidents we attended.

Lithium-ion batteries and household devices

The use of lithium-ion powered devices, including e-scooters, e-bikes and energy storage, is on the rise, leading to an increase in related fire incidents. The use of e-cigarettes or ‘vapes’ also presents concerns, especially with the emergence of counterfeit or faulty products and poor charging practices. By 2027, replaceable or rechargeable batteries in all consumer products, including vapes, will be mandatory. Sustainability regulations are expected to increase the number of lithium batteries in use within our communities. In 2023-24, our crews attended five fires attributed to faulty e-scooter or e-bike batteries, resulting in four injuries, some serious. Based on current trends, this number is likely to rise.

Industrial hazards and hazardous materials

Businesses in the UK are legally required to protect their employees, third parties, and the public from potential hazards arising from their operations. Additionally, they must ensure that their activities do not harm the environment. Companies that handle or store hazardous substances must implement robust measures to prevent or mitigate the impact of accidents on both people and the environment. Businesses that use or store more dangerous substances are strictly regulated under the Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations 2015 (COMAH) and the Radiation (Emergency Preparedness and Public Information) Regulations 2019 (REPPIR).

In Nottinghamshire, there are six COMAH sites, of which three are classified as Upper Tier and three as Lower Tier. Currently, no sites in Nottinghamshire are subject to REPPIR regulations.

Road Traffic Collisions (RTCs)

In 2023, a total of 4.81 billion vehicle miles were travelled on roads in Nottinghamshire. The road network includes major routes such as the M1, A1 and A46.

The majority of RTCs in Nottinghamshire occur between 12:00 and 19:00 hours. Between 2021-23, 47 people were killed and 411 were seriously injured on Nottinghamshire’s roads. Excessive speeding accounted for 21 deaths, and drink or drug driving resulted in 18 deaths. The age groups most affected by RTCs are people aged 17–34 years, who account for a significant portion of casualties and fatalities. Motorcyclists, cyclists, and pedestrians are at higher risk of serious injury or death.

View the Risk of Road Traffic Collisions map in fullscreen

Vehicle fires

These fires can be accidental or deliberate, with the majority that we attend being deliberate. Between 2021 and 2024, we attended an average of 384 vehicle fires per year.

Electric vehicles & alternative fuel vehicles

Fully electric vehicles are considered essential for reducing carbon emissions and achieving a greener future. As the popularity of electric vehicles grows, so does the potential for fires involving these vehicles. Fires involving lithium-ion batteries are often prolonged and present significant challenges to firefighters, as well as hazards to the public and the environment. With the continued diversification of alternative-fuelled vehicles, we also anticipate an increase in the adoption of biogas and hydrogen-fuelled vehicles on our roads.

Rail and tram networks

Two principal rail routes, the East Coast Main Line (ECML) and Midland Mainline, run through Nottinghamshire, with Nottingham Train Station serving as a hub for the national rail network. The Nottingham Express Transit (NET) Tram network has two lines crossing Nottingham City and over 20 miles of tram lines serving local communities. Tram and rail incidents present specific and unique risks and hazards to our responding crews. During 2023-24 we attended nine incidents involving trains and trams.

Rescues from water

In Nottinghamshire, over 85,000 properties are at risk of flooding from various sources, with 12 major flood events over the past 12 years. Nottingham City Council and Nottinghamshire County Council maintain Flood Risk Management Strategies that aim to manage future flood risks and adapt to climate change. Flooding related incidents account for a small number of our total operational incidents, however, flood conditions often pose challenges that require significant resources during spate conditions. In 2023-24, we attended 44 incidents due to flooding, 14 of which involved vehicles.

We maintain a National Resilience High-Volume Pumping appliance that supports responses to local and national flooding events.

Nottinghamshire also has a number of rivers and open water sources. We respond to incidents in which people need to be rescued from water. In 2023-24, we attended 29 water rescue incidents. These incidents, while few, are challenging and high risk. 

Rescue from height and depth (including confined spaces)

All our fire appliances are equipped with safe working at-height equipment, enabling rescues from height and depth. These incidents are often protracted, complex and difficult to resolve. We have a specialist rope rescue capability for more complex incidents.

Bariatric rescues

We primarily respond to bariatric rescues at the request of the ambulance service or other agencies. These incidents can be complex and time-critical, involving the lifting and moving of individuals who often require medical intervention. In 2023- 24, we attended 79 bariatric rescues, an increase of 41% from 2022-23.

Animal rescues

Animals in distress, including pets, livestock, and wild animals can pose serious risks to the public, other agencies and responders. We have a specialist animal rescue capability for the rescue of larger animals, many of which also include other complications such as the animal being injured or in water, mud, or at height. In 2023-24, we attended 78 animal rescue incidents.

We identify and assess the full range of foreseeable fire and rescue related risks in Nottinghamshire.

Fire cover review

Our response activity is a critical aspect of our service, reflecting our commitment to public safety and emergency response. In the formulation of this CRMP, we have reviewed our operational activity over the previous five years and assessed our risks. Working with an independent specialist, ORH, we have undertaken a fire cover review to provide an evidence-based assessment of how we resource against our known risks. The review has used nationally recognised methodologies, developed by the National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) in collaboration with ORH, and informs the approach we take through the strategic goals detailed within this plan. Over the past five years, we have responded to:

Reviewing the incidents we have attended, we can evidence a broad correlation between the location of our fire stations and our operational demands:

View the Relative Risk Density map in fullscreen

Analysis of the relative incident density provides insight into where in the county incidents happen. Unsurprisingly, it shows that we attend many more incidents in urban areas

View the Average Demand per year map in fullscreen

Analysis shows that our fire stations are well positioned in relation to the areas of highest demand.

Further analysis of operational activity and the availability of our fire appliances provides a detailed breakdown of the demands placed upon us to respond to incidents. This analysis reveals how often we can expect to respond to incidents and identifies the times when we are most likely to be needed. By combining this information with data on the availability of our fire appliances, we can assess how well we are resourcing to address risks and pinpoint areas for improvement. These insights enable us to effectively allocate resources to meet the demands posed by operational incidents.

The diagram below illustrates the average number of incidents per day we have attended, providing a clear overview of the operational demands we have faced across different types of incidents that we attend: fires, special service (non-fire incidents), and false alarms:

Following this, we can assess what our operational demands are broken down to hourly demand for all incident types:

The highest demand for incidents occurs between 16:00 and 20:00, with a notable peak around 18:00. Demand from fire-related incidents is generally low during the night and steadily increases throughout the day, to a notable peak between 17:00 and 20:00. This aligns to the overall peak demand. Special services incidents present a largely consistent level of demand, albeit slightly higher during the daytime and early evening. False alarms generate the highest level of demand throughout the night and much of the day, with the higher levels of incidents occurring between 09:00 and 19:00.

When we consider the availability of our fire appliances, we have taken two years of availability data (January 2022 – December 2023) to demonstrate their availability categorised by duty system, including wholetime and on-call each month:

The wholetime duty system maintain consistently high availability, close to 100% throughout the year. Similarly, the wholetime day-crewed system also maintain high availability, around 100%. The on-call system shows more variability, with availability dipping to around 80% during certain months, indicating a potential area for improvement. Overall, the combined performance of all duty systems results in an average availability of around 90%.

Our on-call firefighters often have other primary employment and will respond to operational incidents when alerted by pager, demonstrating considerable commitment to provide their services to the communities of Nottinghamshire. The diagram below illustrates the relationship between overall demand for operational incidents and the availability of our on-call fire appliances:

We can see that overall demand for incidents increases steadily from early morning, peaking between 16:00 and 20:00, before gradually decreasing. During these peak demand hours, the availability of on-call fire appliances shows a downward trend, dipping to around 80% between 09:00 and 19:00, and then recovering in the late evening and early morning hours. Recognising the need for improvement, we continually seek ways to enhance the availability of our on-call fire appliances during periods of higher demand.