Model Validation

This graph shows the 1st response time distribution to life risk primary fires and demonstrates a close match between analysed and modelled performance

This graph shows the 1st response time distribution to life risk primary fires and demonstrates a close match between analysed and modelled performance

This graph shows the mean 1st response time to all incidents by district and demonstrates a close match between analysed and modelled performance

This graph shows the mean 1st response time to all incidents by station and demonstrates a close match between analysed and modelled performance

Model Base

The model validation process ensured that the model accurately replicates the operational regime of NFRS; however, it was necessary to establish a modelled base position that reflects the ‘expected’ position of the service. The model base position was then used to compare all modelled changes against.

The following parameters were agreed with NFRS for setting the modelled base:

  • Ashfield Day Shift Crewing pump replaced with Wholetime pump
  • Worksop station relocated to the development site off Sandy Lane

Reporting Measures used are:

  • Average 1st response to life-risk incidents
  • Average 2nd response to life-risk incidents
  • The percentage of life-risk incidents responded to within 15 minutes
  • Average 1st pump response to all incidents

ORH reported these metrics NFRS-wide and also by district.

Modelled Base (Times in mm:ss, measured from Time Assigned)
District Life-Risk Incidents All Incidents
Average 1st Average 2nd % of 1st in 15 Minutes Average 1st
Service-Wide 8:02 11:41 94.1% 8:07
Ashfield 9:35 12:28 93.8% 9:19
Bassetlaw 8:59 16:28 89.2% 9:38
Broxtowe 7:43 11:37 95.4% 7:43
City of Nottingham 6:44 8:26 98.7% 6:39
Gedling 6:55 10:53 97.3% 7:32
Mansfield 7:17 12:10 97.9% 7:54
Newark & Sherwood 9:49 15:54 86.3% 10:18
Rushcliffe 9:46 12:53 87.1% 9:48